Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.089
- 44.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.041
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
- +2.61CPOE+0.70
- 42.5%Third-down rate40.5%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.02Points / drive1.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/38 | 330 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 10 | 13 | 150 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 10 | 13 | 134 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 13/29 | 127 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 96 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89