2009 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

33·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.089
  • 44.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.041
  • 10.4%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +2.61CPOE+0.70
  • 42.5%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:28871Field goal3–0
DALQ1 8:59962Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 4:1132Punt3–7
DALQ1 3:0330Opp touchdown10–7
DALQ1 2:4600Field goal10–7
NYGQ1 2:37618Field goal13–7
DALQ2 13:31853Touchdown13–14
NYGQ2 9:04638Punt13–14
DALQ2 5:1533Punt13–14
NYGQ2 3:3534Punt13–14
DALQ2 1:46418Turnover13–14
NYGQ2 1:21328Touchdown20–14
DALQ2 0:46537Field goal20–17
NYGQ2 0:0100End of half20–17
NYGQ3 15:00771Missed field goal20–17
DALQ3 11:19430Punt20–17
NYGQ3 9:15710Punt20–17
DALQ3 6:05783Touchdown20–24
NYGQ3 3:3236Punt20–24
DALQ3 1:56310Turnover20–24
NYGQ3 0:22473Touchdown27–24
DALQ4 13:2433Punt27–24
NYGQ4 12:24640Field goal30–24
DALQ4 7:37771Touchdown30–31
NYGQ4 3:401166Field goal33–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3833020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs16583.60
Ahmad Bradshaw9374.10
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham10131501
Steve Smith10131341
Domenik Hixon13130
Kevin Boss12130
Derek Hagan11120
Ahmad Bradshaw2280
Brandon Jacobs0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo13/2912713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber181246.91
Felix Jones79613.71
Patrick Crayton12020.00
Tashard Choice284.00
Tony Romo133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten57331
Marion Barber22310
Miles Austin11200
Roy Williams14180
Martellus Bennett14110
Sam Hurd1270
Patrick Crayton1740
Tashard Choice1130
Felix Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.89