Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutSpencer LarsenLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon StokleyWRThigh· DNP
- QuestionableKnowshon MorenoRBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableLe Kevin SmithDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableBen HamiltonGHamstring· Full
- ProbableChris KuperGAnkle· Full
- ProbableJabar GaffneyWRFinger· Full
- ProbableJosh BarrettSShoulder· Full
- ProbableKyle OrtonQBright Finger· Full
- ProbableMario HagganLBKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRFoot· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRobert GalleryGFibula· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulHiram EugeneSCalf· DNP
- ProbableRichard SeymourDEKnee· DNP
- ProbableJohnnie Lee HigginsWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableKirk MorrisonLBElbow· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBWrist· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:54 | 12 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:11 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:53 | 6 | 23 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:07 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:48 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 6:37 | 10 | 81 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:09 | 5 | 10 | End of half | 13–3 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| LV | Q3 10:57 | 8 | 15 | Punt | 20–3 |
| DEN | Q3 6:43 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| LV | Q3 5:59 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| DEN | Q3 5:05 | 17 | 86 | Field goal | 23–3 |
| LV | Q4 11:57 | 7 | -11 | Punt | 23–3 |
| DEN | Q4 9:11 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–3 |
| LV | Q4 8:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–3 |
| DEN | Q4 7:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 23–3 |
| LV | Q4 5:28 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 23–3 |
| DEN | Q4 3:22 | 5 | 26 | End of half | 23–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 13/23 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.