Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 13/23 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.