Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
47
Model margin
+5.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.043
- 43.2%Success rate46.2%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.159
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.59CPOE+4.51
- 46.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/30 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 119 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 6 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 26/35 | 300 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.44