2009 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

31·24

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

47

Model margin

+5.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.2%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.159
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.59CPOE+4.51
  • 46.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00842Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 10:52759Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 7:35634Punt3–0
JAXQ1 4:433-2Punt3–0
HOUQ1 3:12344Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 1:581069Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 11:18421Punt10–7
JAXQ2 9:0634Punt10–7
HOUQ2 8:02549Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 5:33476Touchdown17–14
HOUQ2 3:471066Touchdown17–21
JAXQ2 0:1910End of half17–21
JAXQ3 15:001083Touchdown24–21
HOUQ3 10:101074Field goal24–24
JAXQ3 4:021072Touchdown31–24
HOUQ4 14:1549Punt31–24
JAXQ4 11:43828Punt31–24
HOUQ4 7:0430Punt31–24
JAXQ4 5:2429Turnover31–24
HOUQ4 4:25758Turnover31–24
JAXQ4 2:0033End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard18/3021400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew231195.23
Mike Thomas23517.50
David Garrard5295.81
Rashad Jennings111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker610810
Torry Holt37570
Maurice Jones-Drew47280
Marcedes Lewis12180
Ernest Wilford11130
Mike Thomas11100
Rashad Jennings1180

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub26/3530031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton12766.30
Chris Brown8192.40
Kevin Walter11111.00
Matt Schaub155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter77961
Andre Johnson47860
Owen Daniels57381
Steve Slaton33370
Jacoby Jones23231
David Anderson24130
Joel Dreessen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.44