2009 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

20·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.8%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.082
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.22CPOE-0.82
  • 40.3%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.65
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:201188Field goal3–0
CINQ1 6:5540Punt3–0
PITQ1 5:28864Touchdown10–0
CINQ1 1:023-10Punt10–0
PITQ2 14:47455Field goal13–0
CINQ2 12:441257Punt13–0
PITQ2 6:391251Turnover on downs13–0
CINQ2 1:06744Field goal13–3
PITQ3 15:0035Opp touchdown13–9
PITQ3 13:3536Missed field goal13–9
CINQ3 11:4838Punt13–9
PITQ3 9:431285Touchdown20–9
CINQ3 3:00735Missed field goal20–9
PITQ4 14:5139Punt20–9
CINQ4 12:45768Touchdown20–15
PITQ4 9:14610Punt20–15
CINQ4 5:141471Touchdown20–23
PITQ4 0:1410End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3127611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker25933.70
Mewelde Moore166.00
Ben Roethlisberger231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace781020
Hines Ward45820
Willie Parker22361
Heath Miller56200
Santonio Holmes15180
Matt Spaeth1270
Mewelde Moore1160
Limas Sweed1250

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3718310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson16764.81
Carson Palmer111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson511540
Andre Caldwell69521
Laveranues Coles57340
Chris Henry13190
Brian Leonard12110
Daniel Coats1180
Cedric Benson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62