Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.019
- 44.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.22CPOE-0.82
- 40.3%Third-down rate41.6%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.65
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/31 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 93 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Limas Sweed | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/37 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62