Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.004
- 38.0%Success rate45.9%
- -0.122EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.129EPA / rush+0.023
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.89CPOE+0.24
- 26.3%Third-down rate48.8%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.20Points / drive1.82
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 14/26 | 192 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 14/22 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Pat White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Camarillo | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11