2009 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

10·38

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.004
  • 38.0%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.129EPA / rush+0.023
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.89CPOE+0.24
  • 26.3%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.82
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:003-2Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:54611Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 8:40614Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:09633Punt0–0
MIAQ1 2:381070Field goal0–3
BUFQ2 11:3810Opp touchdown0–10
BUFQ2 11:23437Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 8:48966Touchdown3–17
BUFQ2 4:2331Punt3–17
MIAQ2 3:15922Punt3–17
BUFQ2 0:261-6End of half3–17
MIAQ3 15:001370Touchdown3–24
BUFQ3 8:2625Turnover3–24
MIAQ3 7:38927Touchdown3–31
BUFQ3 2:361065Touchdown10–31
MIAQ4 14:5064Punt10–31
BUFQ4 10:5348Punt10–31
MIAQ4 8:193-3Punt10–31
BUFQ4 5:533-9Punt10–31
MIAQ4 4:07358Touchdown10–38
BUFQ4 3:43638Turnover10–38
MIAQ4 1:55211End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards14/2619213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson9424.70
Marshawn Lynch840.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens37600
Lee Evans26600
Marshawn Lynch56430
Fred Jackson35260
Josh Reed1231

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne14/2211510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown201155.82
Ricky Williams16855.31
Ted Ginn12222.00
Chad Henne2147.00
Patrick Cobbs2115.50
Pat White1-1-1.00
Brian Hartline1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Camarillo45420
Davone Bess35170
Brian Hartline22171
Ricky Williams11110
Patrick Cobbs11100
Anthony Fasano1370
Ted Ginn1340
Joey Haynos0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.11