2009 · Week 4

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB JaMarcus Russell

6·29

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -9

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LV @ HOU21–23HOU
2022 · W7HOU @ LV20–38RAIDERS
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2013 · W11OAK @ HOU28–23RAIDERS
2011 · W5OAK @ HOU25–20RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0079Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:4838Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:34561Field goal0–3
LVQ1 8:063-2Punt0–3
HOUQ1 5:572-6Turnover0–3
LVQ1 5:11425Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 2:33553Field goal3–6
LVQ2 14:573-3Punt3–6
HOUQ2 13:41667Touchdown3–13
LVQ2 10:3930Punt3–13
HOUQ2 10:05461Touchdown3–20
LVQ2 8:131264Field goal6–20
HOUQ2 2:05637Turnover6–20
LVQ2 0:44327End of half6–20
LVQ3 15:0031Punt6–20
HOUQ3 12:4232Punt6–20
LVQ3 10:3914Turnover6–20
HOUQ3 10:2930Punt6–22
LVQ3 9:001-1Safety6–28
HOUQ3 8:5300Touchdown6–29
LVQ3 8:41517Punt6–29
HOUQ3 6:24621Punt6–29
LVQ3 3:1034Punt6–29
HOUQ3 2:0930Punt6–29
LVQ3 0:01718Turnover on downs6–29
HOUQ4 12:3932Punt6–29
LVQ4 11:023-2Turnover6–29
HOUQ4 10:0935Missed field goal6–29
LVQ4 8:0635Punt6–29
HOUQ4 7:10921Punt6–29
HOUQ4 1:3000End of half6–29

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub11/2222411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton21653.11
Ryan Moats15563.70
Matt Schaub5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson28660
Owen Daniels25480
Kevin Walter13410
Steve Slaton22241
David Anderson22220
Joel Dreessen11170
Jacoby Jones1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.