2009 · Week 4

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Johnson

13·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -9.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.047
  • 36.1%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.168
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -5.15CPOE+1.16
  • 33.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.38
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–WAS
WASQ1 15:003-10Turnover0–0
TBQ1 13:47210Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 13:0033Punt7–0
TBQ1 11:21528Punt7–0
WASQ1 8:10610Punt7–0
TBQ1 5:10514Missed field goal7–0
WASQ1 2:55523Turnover7–0
TBQ1 0:5545Punt7–0
WASQ2 13:31840Turnover7–0
TBQ2 10:02427Missed field goal7–0
WASQ2 7:56833Punt7–0
TBQ2 4:341160Field goal10–0
TBQ3 15:0033Turnover10–0
WASQ3 13:55618Field goal10–3
TBQ3 10:3635Punt10–3
WASQ3 8:561074Touchdown10–9
TBQ3 3:3236Punt10–15
WASQ3 1:29159Touchdown10–16
TBQ3 1:2238Punt10–16
WASQ4 14:16414Turnover10–16
TBQ4 12:141153Field goal13–16
WASQ4 4:25419Punt13–16
TBQ4 1:52310Turnover13–16
WASQ4 0:4800End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson13/2210611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams16774.80
Josh Johnson7415.90
Earnest Graham581.60
Clifton Smith231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant45441
Cadillac Williams45220
Kellen Winslow23210
Sammie Stroughter12100
Earnest Graham2390
Jerramy Stevens0100
Michael Clayton0200
Clifton Smith0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell12/2217023

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis25983.90
Jason Campbell7202.90
Marcus Mason284.00
Ladell Betts1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss24741
Chris Cooley510651
Ladell Betts33210
Mike Sellers11110
Antwaan Randle El0100
Malcolm Kelly0200
Fred Davis11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.20