2009 · Week 4
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.047
- 36.1%Success rate41.0%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.168
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- -5.15CPOE+1.16
- 33.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.06Points / drive1.38
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 13/22 | 106 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 12/22 | 170 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20