Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44
Model margin
-1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.010
- 48.9%Success rate40.8%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.026
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.60CPOE-2.63
- 48.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.29Points / drive1.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 36/44 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 8 | 9 | 97 | 2 |
| Dallas Clark | 9 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 10 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/32 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.39