2009 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

31·9

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44

Model margin

-1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.010
  • 48.9%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.026
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.60CPOE-2.63
  • 48.9%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
INDQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:07627Turnover0–0
INDQ1 9:03518Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 7:2838Punt7–0
TENQ1 5:51416Field goal7–3
INDQ1 4:20329Turnover7–3
TENQ1 3:05424Field goal7–6
INDQ1 0:2839Punt7–6
TENQ2 13:3149Punt7–6
INDQ2 11:441391Touchdown14–6
TENQ2 4:581152Field goal14–9
INDQ2 1:04663Touchdown21–9
TENQ2 0:1700End of half21–9
TENQ3 15:0034Turnover21–9
INDQ3 13:39837Touchdown28–9
TENQ3 9:531045Turnover on downs28–9
INDQ3 5:40310Punt28–9
TENQ3 4:31825Punt28–9
INDQ3 1:101460Field goal31–9
TENQ4 7:32618Punt31–9
INDQ4 5:50831Punt31–9
TENQ4 0:58218End of half31–9

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning36/4430931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai14271.91
Donald Brown6223.70
Chad Simpson393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie89972
Dallas Clark99770
Reggie Wayne68601
Joseph Addai1010530
Donald Brown23130
Pierre Garcon1490
Gijon Robinson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins19/3216401
Vince Young0/3000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LenDale White10515.10
Chris Johnson9343.80
Vince Young166.00
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bo Scaife44450
Nate Washington36370
Jared Cook34270
Kenny Britt25180
Alge Crumpler33140
Chris Johnson2390
Justin Gage1770

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.39