2009 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Johnson

14·33

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -15.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapEagles
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.046
  • 36.1%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.028
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -5.15CPOE+0.05
  • 33.0%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.06Points / drive2.04
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–PHI
TBQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:58264Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 12:1868Punt0–7
PHIQ1 9:1735Punt0–7
TBQ1 7:5748Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ1 5:53717Punt0–7
TBQ1 2:031842Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 7:22676Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 4:40580Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 1:55257Touchdown7–21
TBQ2 1:34953Turnover7–21
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt7–21
TBQ3 13:51418Punt7–21
PHIQ3 11:273-2Punt7–21
TBQ3 9:1730Turnover7–21
PHIQ3 8:56227Touchdown7–28
TBQ3 8:061232Turnover7–28
PHIQ3 4:311164Field goal7–31
TBQ4 12:081174Touchdown14–31
PHIQ4 7:1700Punt14–31
TBQ4 7:133-8Punt14–31
PHIQ4 5:46918Punt14–31
TBQ4 1:422-1Safety14–33
PHIQ4 0:5800End of half14–33

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson26/5024023

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Johnson5408.00
Derrick Ward6376.20
Cadillac Williams1080.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow9121022
Antonio Bryant511620
Michael Clayton312250
Sammie Stroughter37180
John Gilmore1290
Cadillac Williams3380
Jerramy Stevens1210

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb16/2126430
Mike Vick1/3100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb23015.00
Brian Westbrook6183.01
LeSean McCoy6142.30
Mike Vick4102.50
DeSean Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin681422
Brent Celek45580
Brian Westbrook22170
LeSean McCoy23150
Jason Avant12120
DeSean Jackson1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.90
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.80