2009 · Week 5
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -15.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.046
- 36.1%Success rate43.1%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.15CPOE+0.05
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.06Points / drive2.04
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 26/50 | 240 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 9 | 12 | 102 | 2 |
| Antonio Bryant | 5 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 3 | 12 | 25 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/21 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 142 | 2 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.80