2009 · Week 6 · Division

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

16·13

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NYJ -9.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.060
  • 38.0%Success rate39.7%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.129EPA / rush+0.011
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.89CPOE-5.62
  • 26.3%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.61
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:521062Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 7:211371Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 0:3563Punt3–3
NYJQ2 13:2410Turnover3–3
BUFQ2 13:2032Punt3–3
NYJQ2 12:26472Field goal3–6
BUFQ2 9:4537Punt3–6
NYJQ2 8:06277Touchdown3–13
BUFQ2 7:31838Punt3–13
NYJQ2 4:40539Punt3–13
BUFQ2 2:2347Punt3–13
NYJQ2 1:323-3Punt3–13
NYJQ2 1:0233Missed field goal3–13
BUFQ3 15:0036Punt3–13
NYJQ3 13:102-1Turnover3–13
BUFQ3 12:29836Field goal6–13
NYJQ3 7:45521Turnover6–13
BUFQ3 5:14759Touchdown13–13
NYJQ3 2:301033Turnover13–13
BUFQ4 14:02826Punt13–13
NYJQ4 9:03824Punt13–13
BUFQ4 3:55621Missed field goal13–13
NYJOT863Turnover13–13
BUFOT33Punt13–13
NYJOT38Punt13–13
BUFOT22Turnover13–13
NYJOT35Turnover13–13
BUFOT824Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick10/2511611
Trent Edwards5/54300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch19613.20
Fred Jackson15523.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick7202.90
Terrell Owens199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans411681
Shawn Nelson22340
Terrell Owens38130
Marshawn Lynch23110
Josh Reed11100
Derek Fine1150

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez10/2911905

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones222109.51
Leon Washington15996.60
Mark Sanchez166.00
Shonn Greene100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leon Washington38460
Braylon Edwards39400
Thomas Jones22170
Dustin Keller210160
Ben Hartsock0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.85
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.76