Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.060
- 38.0%Success rate39.7%
- -0.122EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.129EPA / rush+0.011
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.89CPOE-5.62
- 26.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.61
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 10/25 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 5/5 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 4 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Shawn Nelson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Derek Fine | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 10/29 | 119 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 210 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.85
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.76