2009 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

28·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.156
  • 40.6%Success rate36.1%
  • -0.092EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.188
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -3.62CPOE-5.15
  • 37.2%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.06
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:12559Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:57734Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:591166Missed field goal0–7
CARQ1 0:10767Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 11:4825Turnover7–7
CARQ2 10:45220Turnover7–7
TBQ2 9:5531Punt7–7
CARQ2 8:2844Missed field goal7–7
TBQ2 6:151029Punt7–7
CARQ2 0:56618Punt7–7
TBQ2 0:0700End of half7–7
TBQ3 15:0010Turnover7–7
CARQ3 14:40512Touchdown14–7
TBQ3 12:071038Punt14–7
CARQ3 5:36660Touchdown21–13
TBQ3 2:3300Touchdown21–14
CARQ3 2:17410Turnover21–14
TBQ3 0:14539Punt21–14
CARQ4 12:11617Opp touchdown21–21
CARQ4 8:331680Touchdown28–21
TBQ4 0:2929End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme9/176512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams301525.12
Jonathan Stewart171106.51
Jake Delhomme155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad34270
DeAngelo Williams22200
Jeff King2281
Dante Rosario1460
Steve Smith1540

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson11/1714701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams16774.81
Josh Johnson8455.60
Derrick Ward122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Stroughter34650
Antonio Bryant23370
Kellen Winslow34290
Michael Clayton1390
Derrick Ward1150
Earnest Graham1120
John Gilmore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22