2009 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.156
- 40.6%Success rate36.1%
- -0.092EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- -3.62CPOE-5.15
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.39Points / drive1.06
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 9/17 | 65 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 30 | 152 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 110 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 11/17 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Josh Johnson | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22