Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
37.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play+0.043
- 35.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.266EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- -10.33CPOE+4.22
- 32.5%Third-down rate40.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.23Points / drive1.83
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 9/24 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 5 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/35 | 417 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 12 | 159 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96