2009 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

14·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

37.5

Model margin

+7.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.168EPA / play+0.043
  • 35.2%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -10.33CPOE+4.22
  • 32.5%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.83
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00532Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:54520Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:32516Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:1330Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:14422Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 4:11725Turnover0–0
PITQ1 1:02895Touchdown0–7
CLEQ2 11:26927Punt0–7
PITQ2 7:25687Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 4:2800Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 4:151137Field goal7–17
CLEQ2 0:0700End of half7–17
CLEQ3 15:00666Touchdown14–17
PITQ3 11:39679Touchdown14–24
CLEQ3 8:3235Punt14–24
PITQ3 6:52741Turnover14–24
CLEQ3 3:574-4Turnover14–24
PITQ3 2:32213Turnover14–24
CLEQ3 1:4348Turnover14–24
PITQ3 0:1419Turnover14–24
CLEQ4 15:00618Punt14–24
PITQ4 11:531055Field goal14–27
CLEQ4 5:42533Turnover14–27
PITQ4 4:21860End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson9/2412211
Josh Cribbs0/2001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Cribbs6457.50
Jerome Harrison5265.20
Jamal Lewis11211.90
Derek Anderson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi510830
Brian Robiskie13230
Jamal Lewis25150
Robert Royal0100
Josh Cribbs0100
Greg Estandia0100
Chansi Stuckey0400

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3541721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall17623.61
Willie Parker7263.70
Mike Wallace12121.00
Mewelde Moore5204.00
Ben Roethlisberger6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward8121591
Santonio Holmes581040
Heath Miller57801
Mike Wallace24500
Rashard Mendenhall22150
Willie Parker1190
Mewelde Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96