Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutSpencer LarsenLBShoulder· DNP
- DNPLaMont JordanRBNot Injury Related
- ProbableCorrell BuckhalterRBAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutAntwan ApplewhiteLBHamstring· DNP
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableStephen CooperLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableKassim OsgoodWRBack· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPGroin· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBCalf· Full
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBGroin· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:59 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:49 | 10 | 92 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| DEN | Q1 4:51 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:39 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q1 0:06 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 7:55 | 3 | -7 | Opp touchdown | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:53 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q2 2:19 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 27 | Missed field goal | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q3 12:34 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| DEN | Q3 7:57 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–23 |
| LAC | Q3 3:43 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 24–23 |
| DEN | Q3 1:43 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 27–23 |
| LAC | Q4 13:05 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 27–23 |
| DEN | Q4 11:36 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 27–23 |
| LAC | Q4 7:51 | 7 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 27–23 |
| DEN | Q4 5:40 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 34–23 |
| LAC | Q4 2:55 | 7 | 40 | Missed field goal | 34–23 |
| DEN | Q4 1:03 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 34–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 20/29 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Scheffler | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.