2009 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

17·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -10

Total

46

Model margin

+6.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.089
  • 40.9%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.041
  • 7.2%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.58CPOE+0.70
  • 34.0%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.77
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DAL
DALQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:561369Field goal3–0
DALQ1 6:58778Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 3:12313Turnover3–7
DALQ1 1:52829Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 13:26980Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 10:251062Missed field goal10–14
SEAQ2 5:143-1Punt10–14
DALQ2 3:561135Touchdown10–21
SEAQ2 0:3512End of half10–21
SEAQ3 15:001038Punt10–21
DALQ3 10:2531Punt10–21
SEAQ3 9:1737Punt10–21
DALQ3 7:521055Touchdown10–28
SEAQ3 2:3939Opp touchdown10–35
SEAQ3 1:1142Punt10–35
DALQ4 14:49641Field goal10–38
SEAQ4 10:58714Punt10–38
DALQ4 9:311-3Turnover10–38
SEAQ4 9:1428Touchdown17–38
DALQ4 8:40734Punt17–38
SEAQ4 4:06664Turnover17–38
DALQ4 2:0836Punt17–38
SEAQ4 0:1413End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3924920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones15563.70
Edgerrin James6172.80
Justin Forsett166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson612890
Deion Branch34361
John Carlson37360
Julius Jones22320
T.J. Houshmandzadeh46240
Justin Forsett12140
Justin Griffith24121
Edgerrin James1160
Seneca Wallace0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/3625630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber14533.81
Felix Jones8394.90
Miles Austin11111.00
Tashard Choice4112.80
Tony Romo11010.00
Patrick Crayton1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin57611
Patrick Crayton35390
Jason Witten48360
Sam Hurd11361
Felix Jones11300
Roy Williams27191
Kevin Ogletree11190
Martellus Bennett23180
John Phillips1100
Marion Barber11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+6.54