Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
46
Model margin
+6.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.089
- 40.9%Success rate45.5%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.041
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.58CPOE+0.70
- 34.0%Third-down rate40.5%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.38Points / drive1.77
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/39 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/36 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Patrick Crayton | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.54