2009 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

20·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

50

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.046
  • 45.5%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.028
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.70CPOE+0.05
  • 40.5%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.04
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:2130Turnover0–0
DALQ1 12:05852Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 7:5439Punt7–0
DALQ1 6:2139Punt7–0
PHIQ1 5:02527Punt7–0
DALQ1 2:14418Punt7–0
PHIQ1 0:12955Field goal7–3
DALQ2 11:38616Punt7–3
PHIQ2 7:461249Field goal7–6
DALQ2 1:38877Field goal10–6
PHIQ2 0:0400End of half10–6
PHIQ3 15:00677Touchdown10–13
DALQ3 11:4829Turnover10–13
DALQ3 10:2713Turnover10–13
DALQ3 9:5125Turnover10–13
PHIQ3 8:54625Punt10–13
DALQ3 6:03823Punt10–13
PHIQ3 2:1010Turnover10–13
DALQ3 2:00432Field goal13–13
PHIQ4 14:52930Turnover on downs13–13
DALQ4 10:49565Touchdown20–13
PHIQ4 8:04825Field goal20–16
DALQ4 4:27428End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/3430711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber12504.20
Tashard Choice3134.31
Felix Jones4102.50
Kevin Ogletree166.00
Tony Romo3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams58750
Patrick Crayton24740
Miles Austin14491
Jason Witten78430
Kevin Ogletree22380
Marion Barber34200
Tashard Choice1180
Martellus Bennett0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb16/3022712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy13544.20
Mike Vick122.00
Donovan McNabb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy57610
Jeremy Maclin39440
Jason Avant22430
Brent Celek35391
DeSean Jackson25290
Alex Smith12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95