Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
50
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.046
- 45.5%Success rate43.1%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.028
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.70CPOE+0.05
- 40.5%Third-down rate37.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.77Points / drive2.04
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/34 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 5 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/30 | 227 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95