Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Dolphins
- DoubtfulChanning CrowderLBShoulder· Limited
- DoubtfulJason FergusonDTElbow· Limited
Patriots
- OutFred TaylorRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJarvis GreenDEKnee· DNP
- OutJulian EdelmanWRForearm· DNP
- OutMatt LightTKnee· DNP
- OutSammy MorrisRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBenjamin WatsonTEBack· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan WilhiteCBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableTy WarrenDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableRandy MossWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Full
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.118
- 45.9%Success rate49.1%
- -0.013EPA / dropback+0.223
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.24CPOE+3.43
- 48.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.82Points / drive2.12
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:28 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:34 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 6:58 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 4:05 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:10 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 9:05 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 6:11 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q2 2:45 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NE | Q2 1:43 | 11 | 40 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| NE | Q3 4:51 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| MIA | Q3 3:15 | 9 | 4 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 14:50 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 17–24 |
| MIA | Q4 9:41 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 5:38 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 17–24 |
| MIA | Q4 3:38 | 6 | 18 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| NE | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| MIA | Q4 1:09 | 4 | 49 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 19/34 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pat White | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Pat White | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Camarillo | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 14 | 56 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/37 | 332 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 6 | 11 | 147 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 9 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.25