Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.118
- 45.9%Success rate49.1%
- -0.013EPA / dropback+0.223
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.033
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.24CPOE+3.43
- 48.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.82Points / drive2.12
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 19/34 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pat White | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Pat White | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Camarillo | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 14 | 56 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/37 | 332 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 20 | 82 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 6 | 11 | 147 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 9 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.25