2009 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

17·41

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -9

Total

41

Model margin

+2.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTitans
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.010
  • 38.0%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.89CPOE-2.63
  • 26.3%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.79
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 8–6 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7TEN @ BUF10–34BUF
2022 · W2TEN @ BUF7–41BUF
2021 · W6BUF @ TEN31–34TEN
2020 · W5BUF @ TEN16–42TEN
2019 · W5BUF @ TEN14–7BUF
2018 · W5TEN @ BUF12–13BUF
2015 · W5BUF @ TEN14–13BUF
2012 · W7TEN @ BUF35–34TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–TEN
TENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:261063Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 9:10985Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 4:0737Punt7–7
TENQ1 2:19452Touchdown7–14
BUFQ1 0:4654Punt7–14
TENQ2 13:25644Field goal7–17
BUFQ2 9:59574Touchdown14–17
TENQ2 7:0140Turnover14–17
BUFQ2 5:21725Punt14–17
TENQ2 1:05552Missed field goal14–17
BUFQ3 15:001181Field goal17–17
TENQ3 8:17756Punt17–17
BUFQ3 3:0839Punt17–17
TENQ3 0:521258Touchdown17–24
BUFQ4 10:443-1Punt17–24
TENQ4 9:211031Field goal17–27
BUFQ4 3:2130Opp touchdown17–34
BUFQ4 2:5441Turnover on downs17–34
TENQ4 2:1630Punt17–34
BUFQ4 1:3435Opp touchdown17–41
BUFQ4 0:53328End of half17–41

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards18/2818511
Fred Jackson1/12710
Ryan Fitzpatrick2/7601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson8486.00
Marshawn Lynch9374.10
Trent Edwards341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens37850
Lee Evans45502
Fred Jackson35230
Marshawn Lynch46180
Josh Reed24160
Shawn Nelson33130
Derek Fine1380
Steve Johnson1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young17/2521011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson261325.12
Vince Young5295.80
LenDale White362.00
Nate Washington111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Johnson991000
Kenny Britt24550
Nate Washington22331
Bo Scaife26160
Jared Cook1140
Alge Crumpler0100
Lavelle Hawkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.85
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.41