Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
41
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.010
- 38.0%Success rate40.8%
- -0.122EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.89CPOE-2.63
- 26.3%Third-down rate41.0%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. TEN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 18/28 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 1/1 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2/7 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 4 | 5 | 50 | 2 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Derek Fine | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 17/25 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 26 | 132 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 9 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.85
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.41