Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.043
- 42.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.038EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.82CPOE+4.22
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.3%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/30 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scott | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/40 | 174 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 7 | 14 | 88 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 10 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.28