2009 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

18·12

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 64°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.043
  • 42.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -0.82CPOE+4.22
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:001142Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 10:491049Field goal6–3
CINQ1 4:4300Touchdown6–3
PITQ1 4:2638Punt6–3
CINQ1 2:211051Punt6–3
PITQ2 12:02526Punt6–3
CINQ2 9:1237Punt6–3
PITQ2 8:05831Field goal6–6
CINQ2 4:133-5Punt6–6
PITQ2 2:521025Field goal6–9
CINQ2 0:1200End of half6–9
PITQ3 15:0038Turnover6–9
CINQ3 13:2739Field goal9–9
PITQ3 11:1935Punt9–9
CINQ3 9:27639Field goal12–9
PITQ3 6:41423Punt12–9
CINQ3 5:013-4Punt12–9
PITQ3 2:511244Field goal12–12
CINQ4 11:20850Field goal15–12
PITQ4 7:2937Punt15–12
CINQ4 6:161034Field goal18–12
PITQ4 1:5640Turnover on downs18–12
CINQ4 1:2600End of half18–12

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/3017800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Scott13332.50
Cedric Benson7223.10
Brian Leonard482.00
Carson Palmer5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles59670
Chad Johnson27290
Brian Leonard33240
Andre Caldwell46230
Bernard Scott12210
J.P. Foschi33140

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/4017401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13362.80
Mewelde Moore22110.50
Ben Roethlisberger2168.00
Willie Parker177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes714880
Heath Miller46260
Hines Ward410240
Mike Wallace15160
Mewelde Moore22140
Rashard Mendenhall1150
Matt Spaeth1110
Willie Parker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.28