2009 · Week 10

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

7·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

48

Model margin

+4.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.124
  • 45.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.018
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.70CPOE+3.74
  • 40.5%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.22
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
GBQ1 15:00315Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:37641Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 10:32933Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 6:01519Punt0–0
GBQ1 3:18726Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:1031Punt0–0
GBQ2 13:36632Punt0–0
DALQ2 9:5039Punt0–0
GBQ2 7:34727Punt0–0
DALQ2 4:03141Turnover0–0
GBQ2 3:3934Punt0–0
DALQ2 1:5030Punt0–0
GBQ2 0:42325Field goal0–3
DALQ3 15:003-9Punt0–3
GBQ3 13:18831Punt0–3
DALQ3 8:56612Punt0–3
GBQ3 6:501771Touchdown0–10
DALQ4 13:14312Turnover0–10
GBQ4 11:4133Touchdown0–17
DALQ4 10:491774Turnover0–17
GBQ4 5:57617Punt0–17
DALQ4 3:171278Touchdown7–17
GBQ4 0:3800End of half7–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo24/3925111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber5265.20
Tony Romo3165.30
Tashard Choice3134.30
Felix Jones362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams571051
Patrick Crayton46520
Jason Witten58470
Miles Austin49200
Marion Barber34110
Tashard Choice1290
Martellus Bennett1260
Kevin Ogletree1110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3618910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant19794.20
Aaron Rodgers5153.01
Ahman Green393.00
Brandon Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver46500
Greg Jennings47450
Jordy Nelson45320
Donald Lee22210
James Jones36170
Brandon Jackson33150
Ryan Grant2280
Ahman Green12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

6.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88