Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
48
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.124
- 45.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.018
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.70CPOE+3.74
- 40.5%Third-down rate47.0%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.22
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/39 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 5 | 7 | 105 | 1 |
| Patrick Crayton | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/36 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| James Jones | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88