Closing spread
JAX -9
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.008
- 38.0%Success rate43.2%
- -0.122EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.129EPA / rush+0.036
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.89CPOE+1.59
- 26.3%Third-down rate46.1%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/31 | 297 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 14 | 197 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 21/30 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 8 | 9 | 91 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16