2009 · Week 11

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

15·18

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -9

Total

41

Model margin

+2.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.008
  • 38.0%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.129EPA / rush+0.036
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.89CPOE+1.59
  • 26.3%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
BUFQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 14:04617Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 10:401157Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 4:3620Turnover3–3
BUFQ1 4:15414Field goal6–3
JAXQ1 1:591378Touchdown6–10
BUFQ2 9:30632Turnover6–10
JAXQ2 6:2036Punt6–10
BUFQ2 4:4839Punt6–10
JAXQ2 2:5834Punt6–10
BUFQ2 1:58871Field goal9–10
JAXQ3 15:00618Punt15–10
BUFQ3 11:40198Touchdown15–10
JAXQ3 11:281242Punt15–10
BUFQ3 4:1235Punt15–10
JAXQ3 3:1538Punt15–10
BUFQ3 0:58738Punt15–10
JAXQ4 12:36765Turnover15–10
BUFQ4 8:2432Punt15–10
JAXQ4 6:121273Touchdown15–18
BUFQ4 0:56415Turnover15–18
JAXQ4 0:1700End of half15–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick18/3129712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson9353.90
Marshawn Lynch8182.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick155.00
Roscoe Parrish1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens9141971
Josh Reed35400
Shawn Nelson13250
Fred Jackson44200
Lee Evans14150

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard21/3021511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew25662.61
David Garrard6162.70
Mike Thomas11212.00
Rashad Jennings284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker89911
Marcedes Lewis34700
Torry Holt37310
Maurice Jones-Drew45180
Mike Thomas2330
Ernest Wilford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.16