2009 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

38·7

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NO -10.5

Total

51

Model margin

-1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.156
  • 48.1%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.188
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +6.47CPOE-5.15
  • 45.6%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.06
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:531375Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 4:58768Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 1:0435Punt7–7
NOQ2 14:5235Punt7–7
TBQ2 13:1837Punt7–7
NOQ2 11:45624Punt7–7
TBQ2 9:00634Turnover7–7
NOQ2 5:2839Field goal10–7
TBQ2 4:1136Punt10–7
NOQ2 3:0832Punt10–7
TBQ2 2:0930Punt10–7
NOQ2 1:38563Touchdown17–7
TBQ2 0:282-3End of half17–7
TBQ3 15:0056Turnover17–7
NOQ3 12:01315Touchdown24–7
TBQ3 10:36731Turnover24–7
NOQ3 7:00670Touchdown31–7
TBQ3 4:50525Punt31–7
NOQ3 2:381382Touchdown38–7
TBQ4 10:12933Turnover on downs38–7
NOQ4 6:50816Turnover on downs38–7
TBQ4 2:0010Turnover38–7
NOQ4 1:4700End of half38–7

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees19/2918730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas11928.40
Mike Bell13755.82
Lynell Hamilton9192.10
Mark Brunell3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston57740
David Thomas46661
Jeremy Shockey24170
Pierre Thomas35110
Robert Meachem23102
Courtney Roby1160
Mike Bell1150
Darnell Dinkins0100
Devery Henderson11-20

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman17/3312613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams11322.90
Earnest Graham33110.30
Josh Freeman23015.00
Derrick Ward7263.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant36400
Kellen Winslow513290
Michael Clayton12181
Earnest Graham33160
Derrick Ward33140
Jerramy Stevens1150
Cadillac Williams1140
John Gilmore0100
Sammie Stroughter0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.28