2009 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
NO -10.5
Total
51
Model margin
-1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.156
- 48.1%Success rate36.1%
- +0.231EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +6.47CPOE-5.15
- 45.6%Third-down rate33.0%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.36Points / drive1.06
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/29 | 187 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 92 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 4 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| Courtney Roby | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darnell Dinkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 17/33 | 126 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 13 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.28