Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.118
- 39.7%Success rate49.1%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.223
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.033
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.62CPOE+3.43
- 37.4%Third-down rate44.2%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.61Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 8/21 | 136 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/41 | 310 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 15 | 17 | 192 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 11 | 34 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stanback | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96