2009 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

14·31

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -10.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.118
  • 39.7%Success rate49.1%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.223
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.033
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -5.62CPOE+3.43
  • 37.4%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:32511Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:45737Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:24412Opp touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:4738Punt0–7
NEQ1 4:161071Touchdown0–14
NYJQ2 15:003-8Punt0–14
NEQ2 13:55759Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 10:1932Turnover0–21
NEQ2 9:19944Field goal0–24
NYJQ2 4:1434Punt0–24
NEQ2 2:0948Opp touchdown7–24
NEQ2 0:50546Missed field goal7–24
NYJQ2 0:1015End of half7–24
NYJQ3 15:001185Touchdown14–24
NEQ3 9:451033Punt14–24
NYJQ3 4:27534Punt14–24
NEQ3 2:42420Punt14–24
NYJQ4 14:5110Turnover14–24
NEQ4 14:42734Punt14–24
NYJQ4 10:3733Turnover14–24
NEQ4 9:53935Touchdown14–31
NYJQ4 5:06637Turnover14–31
NEQ4 3:24616Punt14–31
NYJQ4 0:16233End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez8/2113614

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones211034.90
Mark Sanchez122.00
Shonn Greene3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery38841
Dustin Keller34380
Braylon Edwards15100
Thomas Jones0100
David Clowney0100
Shonn Greene0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4131010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney22773.52
Wes Welker11111.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis5102.00
Tom Brady492.30
Kevin Faulk242.00
Julian Edelman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker15171920
Kevin Faulk48530
Randy Moss511341
Julian Edelman33260
Isaiah Stanback1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96