Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/29 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Simms | 2/4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.