Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJeromey ClaryTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableOgemdi NwagbuoDTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEFoot· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· Full
- ProbableTim DobbinsLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Broncos
- OutLaMont JordanRBBack· DNP
- OutRyan HarrisTToe· DNP
- QuestionableJosh BarrettSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableKyle OrtonQBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableBrandon LloydWRFoot· Full
- ProbableBrandon MarshallWRNeck· Full
- ProbableCorrell BuckhalterRBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:35 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:58 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:08 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 10:54 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 9:52 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q2 4:19 | 4 | 61 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q2 0:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q3 13:54 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LAC | Q3 9:56 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| DEN | Q3 6:47 | 7 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 20–3 |
| LAC | Q3 3:51 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 23–3 |
| DEN | Q4 14:06 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 23–3 |
| LAC | Q4 13:22 | 5 | 51 | Field goal | 26–3 |
| DEN | Q4 10:28 | 11 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 26–3 |
| LAC | Q4 7:37 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 26–3 |
| DEN | Q4 3:51 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 26–3 |
| LAC | Q4 3:29 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 32–3 |
| DEN | Q4 0:34 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 32–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/29 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Simms | 2/4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.