Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
48
Model margin
+4.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.043
- 40.8%Success rate46.2%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.63CPOE+4.51
- 41.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.79Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/22 | 116 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 29 | 151 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/39 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 5 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| James Casey | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.34