2009 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

20·17

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

48

Model margin

+4.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.043
  • 40.8%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.149
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.63CPOE+4.51
  • 41.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.79
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:544-1Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:24741Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 6:36420Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:54747Punt0–7
TENQ1 2:181075Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 12:506-1Punt7–7
TENQ2 9:1033Punt7–7
HOUQ2 6:54658Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 4:01875Touchdown14–14
HOUQ2 0:50319End of half14–14
TENQ3 15:00542Turnover14–14
HOUQ3 12:26853Missed field goal14–14
TENQ3 8:08928Field goal17–14
HOUQ3 2:49658Field goal17–17
TENQ4 15:00826Missed field goal17–17
HOUQ4 10:183-4Punt17–17
TENQ4 8:45728Punt17–17
HOUQ4 5:14638Punt17–17
TENQ4 2:52849Field goal20–17
HOUQ4 0:47431Missed field goal20–17
TENQ4 0:0100End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young12/2211610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson291515.20
Vince Young11736.60
LenDale White242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt45421
Bo Scaife47380
Alge Crumpler23180
Nate Washington14140
Chris Johnson0100
Lavelle Hawkins0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3930520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown11363.30
Steve Slaton5214.20
Matt Schaub100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson411781
David Anderson55520
Kevin Walter45460
Steve Slaton58421
James Casey24330
Joel Dreessen11230
Chris Brown33170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.34