2009 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
DAL -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.089
- 41.0%Success rate45.5%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.176
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.041
- 7.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.16CPOE+0.70
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.38Points / drive1.77
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 24/37 | 256 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 15/27 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.07