2009 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

6·7

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -11

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.089
  • 41.0%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.176
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.041
  • 7.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.16CPOE+0.70
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.77
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:1839Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:31641Turnover0–0
WASQ1 7:58631Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:03827Punt0–0
WASQ1 0:281040Field goal3–0
DALQ2 10:22629Punt3–0
WASQ2 7:31440Punt3–0
DALQ2 6:061167Missed field goal3–0
WASQ2 1:12644Missed field goal3–0
DALQ2 0:0500End of half3–0
WASQ3 15:00618Punt3–0
DALQ3 11:37523Punt3–0
WASQ3 8:49537Punt3–0
DALQ3 6:0433Punt3–0
WASQ3 4:53652Field goal6–0
DALQ3 0:41842Turnover6–0
WASQ4 11:58928Missed field goal6–0
DALQ4 7:06965Touchdown6–7
WASQ4 2:41425Turnover6–7
DALQ4 1:4634Punt6–7
WASQ4 0:0710End of half6–7

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell24/3725601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rock Cartwright13675.20
Quinton Ganther362.00
Ladell Betts451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rock Cartwright78730
Antwaan Randle El56450
Santana Moss57380
Malcolm Kelly12360
Devin Thomas37330
Fred Davis23240
Mike Sellers1270

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo15/2715811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber20995.00
Felix Jones10494.90
Tony Romo242.00
Tashard Choice111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin47470
Jason Witten57430
Martellus Bennett33430
Patrick Crayton12101
Marion Barber1180
Felix Jones1170
Roy Williams0400
John Phillips0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.07