Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+1.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.125
- 45.9%Success rate38.0%
- -0.013EPA / dropback-0.122
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.24CPOE-1.89
- 48.8%Third-down rate26.3%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.20
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/31 | 175 | 1 | 3 |
| Ricky Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 115 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Pat White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/26 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.78