2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

14·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 49°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+1.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.125
  • 45.9%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.013EPA / dropback-0.122
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.129
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.24CPOE-1.89
  • 48.8%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.20
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:28847Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 9:161264Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 2:36971Touchdown7–0
BUFQ2 12:543-8Punt7–0
MIAQ2 11:10629Punt7–0
BUFQ2 7:26570Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 5:23818Punt7–7
BUFQ2 1:38614Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 0:3949Punt7–7
BUFQ2 0:0500End of half7–7
MIAQ3 15:001683Touchdown14–7
BUFQ3 5:531375Touchdown14–14
MIAQ4 13:49517Punt14–14
BUFQ4 11:43837Punt14–14
MIAQ4 7:0231Punt14–14
BUFQ4 5:5936Field goal14–17
MIAQ4 3:35320Turnover14–23
BUFQ4 2:31151Touchdown14–24
MIAQ4 2:23624Turnover14–24
BUFQ4 1:37326Touchdown14–31
MIAQ4 1:2036Turnover14–31
BUFQ4 0:3700End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne17/3117513
Ricky Williams0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams271154.31
Pat White122.00
Ted Ginn1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Fasano56740
Davone Bess35340
Brian Hartline37311
Ted Ginn25180
Ricky Williams0100
Greg Camarillo0200
Joey Haynos0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/2624611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson15734.92
Ryan Fitzpatrick7507.11
Marshawn Lynch362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens55961
Fred Jackson55430
Lee Evans26400
Shawn Nelson14220
Jonathan Stupar11170
Josh Reed13100
Marshawn Lynch1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.78