Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
35
Model margin
+8.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.058
- 44.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.078
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.031
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.22CPOE+2.29
- 40.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.83Points / drive1.99
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Dixon | 12/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Carey Davis | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/35 | 289 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Clayton | 7 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 12 | 62 | 1 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| L.J. Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.63
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.06