2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Dennis Dixon

17·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -9

Total

35

Model margin

+8.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.058
  • 44.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.078
  • -0.083EPA / rush+0.031
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.22CPOE+2.29
  • 40.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.99
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:14973Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 8:14616Punt0–7
BALQ1 4:1438Punt0–7
PITQ1 2:48774Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 14:11616Punt7–7
PITQ2 11:291346Punt7–7
BALQ2 4:11794Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 1:45416End of half7–14
BALQ3 15:00225Turnover7–14
PITQ3 14:0932Punt7–14
BALQ3 12:3531Punt7–14
PITQ3 10:49424Field goal10–14
BALQ3 9:0954Punt10–14
PITQ3 6:01522Punt10–14
BALQ3 4:071046Punt10–14
PITQ4 14:36417Punt10–14
BALQ4 12:272-5Turnover10–14
PITQ4 11:33854Touchdown17–14
BALQ4 6:241094Field goal17–17
PITQ4 1:5133Punt17–17
BALQ4 1:17820Missed field goal17–17
PITOT614Punt17–17
BALOT30Punt17–17
PITOT35Turnover17–17
BALOT419Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dennis Dixon12/2614511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall24954.00
Dennis Dixon3279.01
Carey Davis2157.50
Willie Parker5142.80
Mewelde Moore420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes610741
Hines Ward36470
Rashard Mendenhall22220
Heath Miller1420
Mike Wallace0400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3528910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice19884.60
Willis McGahee5183.61
Joe Flacco1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Clayton7101290
Ray Rice55670
Derrick Mason712621
Kelley Washington13150
Todd Heap1260
Willis McGahee1110
L.J. Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +95.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.63
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.06