2009 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -12
Total
46
Model margin
+5.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.041
- 36.1%Success rate43.4%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.15CPOE-1.75
- 33.0%Third-down rate42.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.06Points / drive1.97
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 20/29 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 4 | 91 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 23/41 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 13 | 57 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.72