2009 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

17·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -12

Total

46

Model margin

+5.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.041
  • 36.1%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -5.15CPOE-1.75
  • 33.0%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.97
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00926Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:221247Punt0–0
ATLQ1 3:081548Field goal0–3
TBQ2 10:4438Punt0–3
ATLQ2 9:17658Touchdown0–10
TBQ2 6:31280Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 5:403-4Punt7–10
TBQ2 3:50741Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 0:2000End of half10–10
TBQ3 15:00423Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:4831Punt10–10
TBQ3 11:5328Touchdown17–10
ATLQ3 11:42860Field goal17–13
TBQ3 6:4245Punt17–13
ATLQ3 5:01420Turnover17–13
TBQ3 3:10628Punt17–13
ATLQ4 14:4931Punt17–13
TBQ4 13:4742Turnover on downs17–13
ATLQ4 12:47419Punt17–13
TBQ4 10:52417Punt17–13
ATLQ4 8:26715Missed field goal17–13
TBQ4 6:38839Missed field goal17–13
ATLQ4 2:301454Touchdown17–20
TBQ4 0:23220Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman20/2925020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams10303.00
Derrick Ward13292.20
Josh Freeman2147.00
Earnest Graham100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant34911
Kellen Winslow78810
Maurice Stovall34260
Sammie Stroughter37190
Earnest Graham13150
Cadillac Williams1181
Jerramy Stevens1160
Derrick Ward1120
John Gilmore0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman23/4124320
Matt Ryan2/31500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner12332.80
Jerious Norwood6223.70
Eric Weems177.00
Chris Redman242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez912830
Michael Jenkins78800
Roddy White513571
Jerious Norwood22281
Eric Weems22100
Marty Booker0100
Justin Peelle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.72