Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.062
- 45.5%Success rate44.1%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.178
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.102
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.70CPOE+2.61
- 40.5%Third-down rate42.5%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 41/55 | 392 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 14 | 16 | 156 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 10 | 12 | 104 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 6 | 10 | 60 | 2 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 11/25 | 241 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 74 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.91