2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·31

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.062
  • 45.5%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.178
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.102
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.70CPOE+2.61
  • 40.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:001044Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:02828Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:2169Punt0–0
NYGQ1 2:1937Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:571364Field goal3–0
NYGQ2 8:5343Turnover3–0
DALQ2 7:19726Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 3:14569Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 1:46210Turnover10–7
NYGQ2 1:04428Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 0:19325Missed field goal10–14
NYGQ3 15:00752Turnover10–14
DALQ3 11:30419Punt10–14
NYGQ3 9:4139Punt10–14
DALQ3 8:00856Touchdown17–14
NYGQ3 3:58174Touchdown17–21
DALQ3 3:39417Punt17–21
NYGQ3 1:2035Punt17–21
DALQ4 14:46838Missed field goal17–21
NYGQ4 10:38763Field goal17–24
DALQ4 7:23312Opp touchdown17–31
DALQ4 5:33727Turnover on downs17–31
NYGQ4 3:2831Punt17–31
DALQ4 2:25677Touchdown24–31
NYGQ4 0:5800End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo41/5539230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber15362.40
Felix Jones661.00
Tashard Choice231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten14161560
Miles Austin10121041
Roy Williams610602
Patrick Crayton22240
Martellus Bennett23200
Felix Jones34130
John Phillips1180
Marion Barber3570
Tashard Choice0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning11/2524121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw7476.70
Brandon Jacobs13393.01
Kevin Boss11616.00
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith6131100
Brandon Jacobs11741
Hakeem Nicks23371
Kevin Boss13100
Mario Manningham14100
Ahmad Bradshaw0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.91