Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
39
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.123
- 42.0%Success rate36.4%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.139
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.00CPOE-4.70
- 36.3%Third-down rate27.1%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.49Points / drive1.20
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 15/25 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 12 | 113 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 10/29 | 84 | 0 | 2 |
| Brodie Croyle | 6/14 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Javarris Williams | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wade | 4 | 12 | 36 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.92