2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

44·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

39

Model margin

+1.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.123
  • 42.0%Success rate36.4%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.139
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.00CPOE-4.70
  • 36.3%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.20
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00653Turnover0–0
KCQ1 11:4634Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:48848Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 7:201965Field goal7–3
DENQ2 14:22416Punt7–3
KCQ2 12:3136Punt7–3
DENQ2 11:36880Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 7:0336Punt14–3
DENQ2 5:2334Punt14–3
KCQ2 3:4637Punt14–3
DENQ2 2:33515Turnover14–3
KCQ2 1:00420Field goal14–6
DENQ2 0:2317End of half14–6
KCQ3 15:0042Turnover on downs14–6
DENQ3 14:0331Field goal17–6
KCQ3 13:162-1Turnover17–6
DENQ3 12:21421Touchdown24–6
KCQ3 10:31511Turnover24–6
DENQ3 8:34522Field goal27–6
KCQ3 5:5335Punt27–6
DENQ3 5:0333Punt27–6
KCQ3 3:26212Opp touchdown34–6
KCQ3 2:41515Punt34–6
DENQ3 0:512-1Turnover34–6
KCQ3 0:0223Touchdown34–13
DENQ4 14:57780Touchdown41–13
KCQ4 12:0530Punt41–13
DENQ4 11:26421Field goal44–13
KCQ4 8:491067Turnover on downs44–13
DENQ4 6:03747End of half44–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton15/2518021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter121139.40
Knowshon Moreno21864.12
Peyton Hillis7476.70
Brandon Marshall122.00
Eddie Royal111.00
Chris Simms3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall710941
Eddie Royal24320
Daniel Graham23201
Tony Scheffler14190
Correll Buckhalter33150
Jabar Gaffney0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel10/298402
Brodie Croyle6/145000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles18563.11
Matt Cassel3175.70
Javarris Williams2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Wade412360
Lance Long28280
Brad Cottam35210
Leonard Pope23180
Chris Chambers26110
Jamaal Charles1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.92