2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

18·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.008
  • 46.2%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.149EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.51CPOE+1.59
  • 41.5%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.59
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00748Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 10:443-1Turnover0–3
JAXQ1 10:02817Turnover on downs0–3
HOUQ1 5:5837Punt0–3
JAXQ1 4:2840Punt0–3
HOUQ1 2:34417Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:25446Touchdown0–10
HOUQ2 14:08943Punt0–10
JAXQ2 9:48675Touchdown0–17
HOUQ2 7:061067Touchdown7–17
JAXQ2 1:56852Field goal7–20
HOUQ2 0:0500End of half7–20
HOUQ3 15:00313Punt7–20
JAXQ3 12:532-1Safety9–20
HOUQ3 12:23420Turnover9–20
JAXQ3 10:171139Field goal9–23
HOUQ3 4:3361Punt9–23
HOUQ3 2:1737Field goal12–23
JAXQ3 0:13611Punt12–23
HOUQ4 12:28776Turnover12–23
JAXQ4 8:2831Punt12–23
HOUQ4 7:251051Touchdown18–23
JAXQ4 4:01738End of half18–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/2720711
Rex Grossman3/93301
Chris Brown0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Moats12413.40
Chris Brown6152.51
Matt Schaub177.00
Rex Grossman351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson717991
Kevin Walter46540
David Anderson46390
Ryan Moats33240
Chris Brown22110
Joel Dreessen1280

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard15/2823820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew24763.20
Rashad Jennings2147.00
David Garrard8131.60
Mike Thomas242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller33740
Marcedes Lewis11470
Nate Hughes11351
Torry Holt26240
Mike Thomas33210
Mike Sims-Walker18120
Ernest Wilford23111
Rashad Jennings1180
Maurice Jones-Drew1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.47