Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.008
- 46.2%Success rate43.2%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.51CPOE+1.59
- 41.5%Third-down rate46.1%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.79Points / drive1.59
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/27 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 3/9 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 17 | 99 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 15/28 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | 76 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 74 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 47 | 0 |
| Nate Hughes | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Torry Holt | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.47