Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.004
- 49.1%Success rate45.9%
- +0.223EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.033EPA / rush+0.023
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.43CPOE+0.24
- 44.2%Third-down rate48.8%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.12Points / drive1.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/29 | 352 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 13 | 167 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 1 | 3 | 81 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/52 | 335 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Pat White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 10 | 14 | 117 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 4 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.37