2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

21·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.004
  • 49.1%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.223EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.033EPA / rush+0.023
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.43CPOE+0.24
  • 44.2%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.82
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:00680Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 11:38929Punt7–0
NEQ1 6:411380Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 14:561088Touchdown14–7
NEQ2 11:03425Punt14–7
MIAQ2 8:34631Turnover14–7
NEQ2 5:11776Turnover on downs14–7
MIAQ2 1:55983Field goal14–10
NEQ2 0:0100End of half14–10
MIAQ3 15:0038Punt14–10
NEQ3 12:43281Touchdown21–10
MIAQ3 12:0269Field goal21–13
NEQ3 10:0034Punt21–13
MIAQ3 8:461264Touchdown21–19
NEQ3 3:18642Punt21–19
MIAQ4 15:00419Punt21–19
NEQ4 12:53746Turnover21–19
MIAQ4 9:3930Punt21–19
NEQ4 9:1234Punt21–19
MIAQ4 7:35837Turnover on downs21–19
NEQ4 4:443-1Punt21–19
MIAQ4 3:44949Field goal21–22
NEQ4 1:02311Turnover21–22
MIAQ4 0:3500End of half21–22

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/2935222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney13413.20
Sammy Morris9404.40
Kevin Faulk3155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker10131670
Sam Aiken13811
Randy Moss25661
Sammy Morris22250
Laurence Maroney1180
Chris Baker1160
Kevin Faulk23-10

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne29/5233521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams18754.20
Pat White200.00
Chad Henne1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess10141171
Anthony Fasano57670
Greg Camarillo410610
Brian Hartline47411
Ted Ginn23340
Ricky Williams2360
Joey Haynos0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.37