Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
-0.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.125
- 39.7%Success rate38.0%
- -0.151EPA / dropback-0.122
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.129
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.62CPOE-1.89
- 37.4%Third-down rate26.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 1.61Points / drive1.20
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 7/15 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 109 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9/23 | 98 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 1 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71