2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

19·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Rogers Centre · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

-0.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.125
  • 39.7%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback-0.122
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.129
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.62CPOE-1.89
  • 37.4%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.20
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00652Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 10:4536Punt0–3
BUFQ1 9:0535Punt0–3
NYJQ1 7:25756Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 3:39312Punt3–3
NYJQ1 1:59314Punt3–3
BUFQ1 0:4244Turnover3–3
NYJQ2 14:4636Field goal6–3
BUFQ2 13:21565Touchdown6–10
NYJQ2 10:25950Field goal9–10
BUFQ2 6:09419Punt9–10
NYJQ2 3:42686Touchdown16–10
BUFQ2 0:4421End of half16–10
NYJQ3 15:003-2Punt16–10
BUFQ3 13:26511Punt16–10
NYJQ3 10:41840Punt16–10
BUFQ3 5:4932Punt16–10
NYJQ3 4:47739Field goal19–10
BUFQ4 14:563-3Punt19–10
NYJQ4 13:133-1Punt19–10
BUFQ4 11:4030Punt19–10
NYJQ4 11:073-3Punt19–10
BUFQ4 9:07736Field goal19–13
NYJQ4 5:28610Punt19–13
BUFQ4 2:322-10Turnover19–13
NYJQ4 2:02232End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez7/1510410
Kellen Clemens1/21400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones231094.70
Shonn Greene11595.40
Brad Smith12121.00
David Clowney11313.00
Mark Sanchez188.00
Kellen Clemens430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery46680
Braylon Edwards36451
Dustin Keller1150
David Clowney0200
Danny Woodhead0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick9/239801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch66010.01
Ryan Fitzpatrick5326.40
Fred Jackson13312.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans17380
Terrell Owens39310
Fred Jackson33240
Marshawn Lynch1140
Jonathan Stupar1110
Josh Reed0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.71