2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

6·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+10.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.058
  • 36.1%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -5.15CPOE-3.62
  • 33.0%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.39
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:001064Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 9:49528Turnover0–7
CARQ1 8:03765Field goal0–10
TBQ1 4:14312Punt0–10
CARQ1 2:3433Punt0–10
TBQ1 0:58449Field goal3–10
CARQ2 13:30325Turnover3–10
TBQ2 12:35531Field goal6–10
CARQ2 10:0130Punt6–10
TBQ2 7:50857Missed field goal6–10
CARQ2 2:36611Punt6–10
TBQ2 1:05531End of half6–10
TBQ3 15:00568Turnover6–10
CARQ3 12:301060Field goal6–13
TBQ3 6:14519Turnover6–13
CARQ3 4:1439Punt6–13
TBQ3 2:131558Turnover6–13
CARQ4 10:04575Field goal6–16
TBQ4 7:12645Missed field goal6–16
CARQ4 5:193-2Punt6–16
TBQ4 3:031271Turnover6–16
CARQ4 0:1800End of half6–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman23/4432105

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams17925.40
Derrick Ward5326.40
Josh Freeman33010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant5111160
Kellen Winslow46690
Maurice Stovall410680
Sammie Stroughter34230
Derrick Ward33170
Cadillac Williams23140
Jerramy Stevens1290
Earnest Graham1250
Brian Clark0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore14/2016101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart261204.61
Tyrell Sutton6386.30
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith35780
Muhsin Muhammad45430
Jeff King33170
Dante Rosario23110
Jonathan Stewart1160
Charly Martin1160
Tyrell Sutton0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.3%4.7%6.5%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

76.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.76