2009 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+10.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.058
- 36.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- -5.15CPOE-3.62
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.06Points / drive1.39
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 23/44 | 321 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 5 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 4 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 14/20 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Charly Martin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.76