Closing spread
IND -6
Total
47
Model margin
+3.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.127
- 40.8%Success rate48.9%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.077
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.63CPOE+4.60
- 41.0%Third-down rate48.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.79Points / drive2.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 24/43 | 241 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 27 | 113 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scaife | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/37 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Mike Hart | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 10 | 136 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14