2009 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

17·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -6

Total

47

Model margin

+3.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.127
  • 40.8%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.077
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.63CPOE+4.60
  • 41.0%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.29
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 13:021269Field goal3–7
INDQ1 6:3434Punt3–7
TENQ1 5:381028Punt3–7
INDQ1 0:381067Touchdown3–14
TENQ2 11:42229Turnover3–14
INDQ2 10:5038Punt3–14
TENQ2 9:47930Turnover3–14
INDQ2 5:43947Touchdown3–21
TENQ2 1:55866Touchdown10–21
INDQ2 0:20323Field goal10–24
TENQ3 15:00517Punt10–24
INDQ3 12:431258Missed field goal10–24
TENQ3 7:141456Turnover on downs10–24
INDQ3 1:0139Punt10–24
TENQ4 14:50934Turnover on downs10–24
INDQ4 10:371469Field goal10–27
TENQ4 3:14646Touchdown17–27
INDQ4 1:2300Turnover on downs17–27
TENQ4 1:2140Turnover on downs17–27
INDQ4 0:5700End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young24/4324121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson271134.20
Vince Young4164.00
LenDale White2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bo Scaife55561
Kenny Britt39461
Nate Washington410440
Lavelle Hawkins25340
Chris Johnson68280
Alge Crumpler24140

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/3727010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai21793.82
Mike Hart4112.80
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon6101360
Reggie Wayne47480
Mike Hart22270
Dallas Clark36250
Austin Collie47181
Joseph Addai33170
Chad Simpson22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14