2009 · Week 14

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

16·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

38

Model margin

+2.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.123
  • 38.0%Success rate36.4%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.139
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.89CPOE-4.70
  • 26.3%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.20
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
KCQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:1038Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:451155Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:0830Turnover0–0
KCQ1 5:4841Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 3:54892Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 0:041274Field goal7–3
BUFQ2 10:2523Turnover7–3
KCQ2 9:36817Punt7–3
BUFQ2 5:301052Field goal10–3
KCQ2 1:10627Turnover on downs10–3
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt10–3
KCQ3 12:3510Turnover10–3
BUFQ3 12:25419Turnover10–3
KCQ3 10:283-1Punt10–3
BUFQ3 9:101050Field goal13–3
KCQ3 3:10176Touchdown13–10
BUFQ3 2:53410Punt13–10
KCQ4 15:0035Punt13–10
BUFQ4 13:1534Missed field goal13–10
KCQ4 12:1237Turnover13–10
BUFQ4 11:22617Field goal16–10
KCQ4 8:011559Turnover16–10
BUFQ4 2:1139Punt16–10
KCQ4 1:00436Turnover16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/208611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson20995.00
Marshawn Lynch12847.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Jackson34230
Shawn Nelson22190
Terrell Owens25151
Lee Evans14110
Marshawn Lynch33100
Jonathan Stupar1180
Josh Reed0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel26/4322404

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles201437.21
Matt Cassel111.00
Lance Long1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers49500
Leonard Pope45450
Jamaal Charles78380
Mark Bradley38350
Bobby Wade46340
Brad Cottam11260
Lance Long22-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.59