Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.123
- 38.0%Success rate36.4%
- -0.122EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.89CPOE-4.70
- 26.3%Third-down rate27.1%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.20
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/20 | 86 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 26/43 | 224 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Brad Cottam | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Lance Long | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.59