2009 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

6·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 15°F · wind 25mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

34

Model margin

+0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.168
  • 44.8%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.266
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +4.22CPOE-10.33
  • 40.3%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:2230Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:27629Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:083-3Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:0041Field goal0–3
PITQ1 3:471029Punt0–3
CLEQ2 14:24518Punt0–3
PITQ2 11:5235Punt0–3
CLEQ2 10:16641Field goal0–6
PITQ2 7:2051Punt0–6
PITQ2 4:2700Punt0–6
CLEQ2 4:16553Touchdown0–6
CLEQ2 2:00321Touchdown0–13
PITQ2 0:41543Field goal3–13
PITQ3 15:00738Punt3–13
CLEQ3 10:22632Punt3–13
PITQ3 7:013-8Punt3–13
CLEQ3 5:3034Punt3–13
PITQ3 3:53649Field goal6–13
CLEQ3 0:0839Punt6–13
PITQ4 14:05722Punt6–13
CLEQ4 11:34926Punt6–13
PITQ4 6:161240Turnover on downs6–13
CLEQ4 1:4335Punt6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/3220100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall16533.30
Willie Parker3124.00
Ben Roethlisberger3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes611930
Heath Miller57590
Hines Ward48210
Rashard Mendenhall12170
Mike Wallace23110
David Johnson0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn6/199000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Cribbs88710.90
Chris Jennings20733.61
Jerome Harrison791.30
Brady Quinn122.00
Chansi Stuckey100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi15370
Evan Moore26340
Jerome Harrison23100
Josh Cribbs1190
Robert Royal0100
Chansi Stuckey0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -104.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77