Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
34
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.168
- 44.8%Success rate35.2%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.266
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +4.22CPOE-10.33
- 40.3%Third-down rate32.5%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/32 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 6 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 6/19 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 8 | 87 | 10.9 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77