Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bengals
- OutChris CrockerSAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutDomata PekoDTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableBernard ScottRBToe· Limited
- ProbableRobert GeathersDEKnee· DNP
- ProbableTank JohnsonDTFoot· Limited
- ProbableBrian LeonardRBCalf· Full
- ProbableKyries HebertSKnee· Full
- ProbableMorgan TrentCBKnee· Full
Chargers
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAlfonso BooneDEKnee· Full
- QuestionableKevin BurnettLBNeck· DNP
- QuestionableLegedu NaaneeWRFoot· Full
- QuestionableShaun PhillipsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableEric WeddleSKnee· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPleft Groin· Full
- ProbableQuentin JammerCBToe· Full
- ProbableShawne MerrimanLBFoot· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 10:06 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:11 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 2:06 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:00 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q2 10:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 8:21 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CIN | Q2 3:12 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 9:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 7:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 7:07 | 2 | 40 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q3 6:26 | 3 | 15 | Punt | 13–21 |
| LAC | Q3 4:27 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| CIN | Q3 1:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q4 14:44 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| CIN | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 12:37 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 21–24 |
| CIN | Q4 7:20 | 12 | 87 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:54 | 4 | 46 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| CIN | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/40 | 314 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Foschi | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Quan Cosby | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 5 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.