Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/40 | 314 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Foschi | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Laveranues Coles | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Quan Cosby | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 5 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.