Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutMarc ColomboTAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMartellus BennettTEConcussion· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutPat WatkinsSKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableDeMarcus WareLBWrist· DNP
- QuestionableKen HamlinSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDeon AndersonRBKnee· DNP
- ProbableGerald SensabaughSThumb· Full
- ProbableTerence NewmanCBKnee· Full
Saints
- OutJabari GreerCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableBobby McCrayDEBack· Limited
- QuestionableJeremy ShockeyTEToe· Limited
- QuestionableMarvin MitchellLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableScott FujitaLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSedrick EllisDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableTracy PorterCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableUsama YoungSHip· Limited
- ProbableCarl NicksGBack· Limited
- ProbableGarrett HartleyKright Hip· Limited
- ProbableJahri EvansGFoot· Limited
- ProbableJermon BushrodTThumb· Limited
- ProbableJon StinchcombTKnee· Limited
- ProbableJonathan GoodwinCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableJonathan VilmaLBKnee· Limited
- ProbablePierre ThomasRBHip· Limited
- ProbableLance MooreWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike BellRBWrist· Full
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.118
- 45.5%Success rate48.1%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.028
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.70CPOE+6.47
- 40.5%Third-down rate45.6%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 13:10 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:43 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:15 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:12 | 12 | 49 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:07 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| DAL | Q2 7:23 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NO | Q2 3:55 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| DAL | Q2 1:53 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NO | Q2 1:22 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| DAL | Q2 0:45 | 5 | 13 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–3 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| NO | Q3 8:00 | 6 | -8 | Punt | 24–3 |
| DAL | Q3 6:03 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 24–3 |
| NO | Q3 0:38 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| DAL | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 24–10 |
| NO | Q4 11:23 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| DAL | Q4 8:00 | 9 | 74 | Missed field goal | 24–17 |
| NO | Q4 2:16 | 11 | 32 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| DAL | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/34 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Felix Jones | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 13 | 139 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/45 | 298 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 8 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06