Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.008
- 48.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.60CPOE+1.59
- 48.9%Third-down rate46.1%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.29Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/30 | 308 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 7 | 132 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 11 | 95 | 2 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/40 | 223 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 27 | 110 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Torry Holt | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Ernest Wilford | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.17