2009 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

35·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.008
  • 48.9%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.60CPOE+1.59
  • 48.9%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.59
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001241Field goal0–3
INDQ1 7:271480Touchdown7–3
JAXQ2 14:131256Touchdown13–10
INDQ2 8:2500Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 8:121071Touchdown14–17
INDQ2 2:58668Touchdown21–17
JAXQ2 0:35420Missed field goal21–17
INDQ3 15:00514Turnover21–17
JAXQ3 12:17939Touchdown21–24
INDQ3 8:32780Touchdown28–24
JAXQ3 5:28951Touchdown28–31
INDQ3 0:4737Punt28–31
JAXQ4 14:41514Punt28–31
INDQ4 12:20942Punt28–31
JAXQ4 7:3238Punt28–31
INDQ4 6:05370Touchdown35–31
JAXQ4 5:23717Punt35–31
INDQ4 2:31311Punt35–31
JAXQ4 2:06728Turnover35–31
INDQ4 0:5600End of half35–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning23/3030841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai16593.70
Mike Hart331.00
Austin Collie122.00
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne571321
Dallas Clark711952
Austin Collie34271
Pierre Garcon22160
Joseph Addai33140
Mike Hart11110
Jacob Tamme1180
Gijon Robinson1150

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard23/4022331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew271104.11
Rashad Jennings5234.60
David Garrard263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker69641
Marcedes Lewis47530
Torry Holt38380
Maurice Jones-Drew55301
Mike Thomas24201
Ernest Wilford1270
Zach Miller1260
Rashad Jennings1150
Brock Bolen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.17