Closing spread
DEN -13.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 19/34 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.