Closing spread
DEN -13.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutBruce GradkowskiQBKnee· DNP
- OutDarrius Heyward-BeyWRFoot· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· DNP
- QuestionableSam WilliamsLBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableZach MillerTEConcussion· DNP
- ProbableGreg EllisDEKnee· Full
- ProbableMatt ShaughnessyDEGroin· Full
- ProbableMichael HuffSNeck· Full
- ProbableSamson SateleCCalf· Full
Broncos
- DoubtfulCorrell BuckhalterRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulRenaldo HillSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTy LawCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDavid BrutonSQuadricep· Full
- ProbableElvis DumervilLBToe· Full
- ProbableKnowshon MorenoRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableRichard QuinnTEHamstring· Full
- ProbableSpencer LarsenLBBack· Full
- ProbableTony SchefflerTERibs· Full
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:22 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:07 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 4:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q1 2:36 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 0:35 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| DEN | Q2 13:01 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LV | Q2 11:06 | 9 | 18 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| DEN | Q2 6:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 5:19 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| DEN | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:00 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 13–6 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| LV | Q3 10:07 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| DEN | Q3 7:31 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| LV | Q3 3:48 | 7 | 88 | Turnover on downs | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LV | Q4 13:08 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 13–16 |
| DEN | Q4 9:35 | 8 | 76 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| LV | Q4 5:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–19 |
| DEN | Q4 3:59 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 13–19 |
| LV | Q4 3:29 | 12 | 30 | Touchdown | 20–19 |
| DEN | Q4 0:35 | 4 | 32 | End of half | 20–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 19/34 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.