2009 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 39°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

43

Model margin

+0.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.043
  • 44.3%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.124
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.083
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +2.29CPOE+4.22
  • 41.4%Third-down rate40.3%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.83
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00834Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:0731Turnover0–0
PITQ1 10:1530Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:21864Field goal3–3
PITQ1 5:18626Field goal3–6
BALQ1 1:0934Punt3–6
PITQ1 0:03625Touchdown3–13
BALQ2 12:52761Touchdown10–13
PITQ2 9:5524Turnover10–13
BALQ2 9:1614Turnover10–13
PITQ2 9:07632Punt10–13
BALQ2 6:11730Punt10–13
PITQ2 2:00794Touchdown10–20
BALQ2 0:35416End of half10–20
BALQ3 15:001064Touchdown17–20
PITQ3 9:3010Turnover17–20
BALQ3 9:10615Field goal20–20
PITQ3 6:1632Punt20–20
BALQ3 4:141249Punt20–20
PITQ4 13:56824Punt20–20
BALQ4 11:0349Punt20–20
PITQ4 9:03749Field goal20–23
BALQ4 5:2566Turnover20–23
PITQ4 2:273-1End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco13/2516621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice301414.70
Willis McGahee2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason713770
Todd Heap23372
Kelley Washington12270
Ray Rice12140
Demetrius Williams1490

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/3325911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall17362.11
Willie Parker2178.50
Mewelde Moore1-2-2.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes512861
Mike Wallace36830
Hines Ward44370
Heath Miller34350
Tyler Grisham12140
Rashard Mendenhall1340
Mewelde Moore0100
David Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.54