Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.043
- 44.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.124
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +2.29CPOE+4.22
- 41.4%Third-down rate40.3%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.83
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 13/25 | 166 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 30 | 141 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 37 | 2 |
| Kelley Washington | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/33 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 17 | 36 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Grisham | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54