2009 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

17·0

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

42

Model margin

-0.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.047
  • 45.5%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.168
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.70CPOE+1.16
  • 40.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.38
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:00519Turnover0–0
DALQ1 12:12736Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 8:33518Punt7–0
DALQ1 6:5631Punt7–0
WASQ1 5:201228Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:52424Punt7–0
WASQ2 11:58433Punt7–0
DALQ2 10:22488Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 8:0037Punt14–0
DALQ2 6:0456Turnover14–0
WASQ2 3:263-8Punt14–0
DALQ2 1:49961End of half14–0
DALQ3 15:00629Turnover on downs14–0
WASQ3 10:37731Punt14–0
DALQ3 7:001364Turnover on downs14–0
WASQ3 0:50419Punt14–0
DALQ4 14:421363Field goal17–0
WASQ4 7:44620Punt17–0
DALQ4 5:55522Punt17–0
WASQ4 3:461451Turnover on downs17–0
DALQ4 0:2400End of half17–0

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/3828611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber17633.71
Felix Jones10585.80
Tashard Choice111.00
Tony Romo1-1-1.00
Miles Austin1-13-13.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten671170
Miles Austin910920
Marion Barber45300
Felix Jones44270
Patrick Crayton13160
Roy Williams1441
Sam Hurd0100
Martellus Bennett0200
Kevin Ogletree0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell24/3919901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Campbell4133.30
Quinton Ganther7131.90
Marcus Mason4112.80
Rock Cartwright362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss811920
Fred Davis24290
Malcolm Kelly46250
Antwaan Randle El35210
Quinton Ganther12160
Rock Cartwright57140
Todd Yoder1120
Mike Sellers0100
Marcus Mason0100
Marko Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-0.25