2009 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
42
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.047
- 45.5%Success rate41.0%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.168
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.70CPOE+1.16
- 40.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.77Points / drive1.38
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/38 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 7 | 117 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 9 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Sam Hurd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 24/39 | 199 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 5 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marko Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.25