2009 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

10·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CIN -13

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBengals
  • -0.123EPA / play-0.019
  • 36.4%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.70CPOE-0.82
  • 27.1%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.65
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CIN
KCQ1 15:00625Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:50829Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:5239Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:3431Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:02717Punt0–0
CINQ2 14:4922Turnover0–0
KCQ2 14:0137Punt0–0
CINQ2 13:0237Punt0–0
KCQ2 11:0310Turnover0–0
CINQ2 10:50613Punt0–0
KCQ2 7:451234Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ2 2:2341Field goal0–3
KCQ2 1:381174Field goal3–3
CINQ2 0:0500End of half3–3
CINQ3 15:001077Touchdown3–10
KCQ3 9:10619Punt3–10
CINQ3 5:51623Punt3–10
KCQ3 2:15849Touchdown10–10
CINQ4 14:52519Punt10–10
KCQ4 12:02629Punt10–10
CINQ4 9:211593Touchdown10–17
KCQ4 2:03432Turnover10–17
CINQ4 1:0639Punt10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel22/3718012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles241024.30
Matt Cassel3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe912610
Chris Chambers310340
Jamaal Charles34220
Bobby Wade23180
Leonard Pope1170
Jake O'Connell1340

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer17/2513921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson291334.60
Larry Johnson4112.80
Carson Palmer221.00
Chad Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles34431
Chad Johnson47311
Andre Caldwell34220
Brian Leonard22120
Quan Cosby1180
Cedric Benson2270
Daniel Coats1170
J.P. Foschi0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67