Closing spread
CIN -13
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.019
- 36.4%Success rate42.9%
- -0.113EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.70CPOE-0.82
- 27.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.20Points / drive1.65
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/37 | 180 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 24 | 102 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 9 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/25 | 139 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 29 | 133 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67