Closing spread
IND -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.127
- 39.7%Success rate48.9%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.241
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -5.62CPOE+4.60
- 37.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.61Points / drive2.29
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 12/19 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/21 | 192 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 4/11 | 44 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 6 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tom Santi | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.52