2009 · Week 16

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

29·15

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapColts
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.127
  • 39.7%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.241
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -5.62CPOE+4.60
  • 37.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.29
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. IND are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11IND @ NYJ28–27IND
2021 · W9NYJ @ IND30–45IND
2020 · W3NYJ @ IND7–36IND
2018 · W6IND @ NYJ34–42NYJ
2016 · W13IND @ NYJ41–10IND
2015 · W2NYJ @ IND20–7NYJ
2012 · W6IND @ NYJ9–35NYJ
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ IND17–16NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–IND
INDQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:0336Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:15849Touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 6:55928Punt0–6
INDQ1 1:311157Field goal0–9
NYJQ2 11:4639Punt0–9
INDQ2 9:39725Punt0–9
NYJQ2 6:221063Field goal3–9
INDQ2 1:44512Punt3–9
NYJQ2 0:3839End of half9–9
NYJQ3 15:0000Touchdown10–9
INDQ3 14:48981Touchdown10–15
NYJQ3 10:13934Punt10–15
INDQ3 5:3638Punt10–15
NYJQ3 3:41521Punt16–15
INDQ3 1:381-10Opp touchdown18–15
INDQ3 1:2930Punt18–15
NYJQ3 0:26520Field goal21–15
INDQ4 13:2339Punt21–15
NYJQ4 11:521179Touchdown29–15
INDQ4 5:38329Turnover29–15
NYJQ4 4:46725Turnover on downs29–15
INDQ4 1:034-4Turnover on downs29–15
NYJQ4 0:3900End of half29–15

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez12/1910600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones231054.61
Shonn Greene16955.90
Brad Smith2168.00
Mark Sanchez200.00
David Clowney1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery47450
Dustin Keller34190
Braylon Edwards25180
David Clowney11110
Danny Woodhead1180

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning14/2119200
Curtis Painter4/114401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai6406.71
Donald Brown15221.51
Curtis Painter133.00
Austin Collie1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie67940
Dallas Clark47570
Reggie Wayne37330
Tom Santi12220
Hank Baskett22160
Donald Brown11120
Gijon Robinson1320
Jacob Tamme0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.52