Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
37
Model margin
-1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 8/17 | 121 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 39 | 148 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Michael Gaines | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.