2009 · Week 16

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Charlie Frye

9·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

37

Model margin

-1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

OAK lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–CLE
LVQ1 15:0024Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 14:15217Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 13:3234Punt0–7
CLEQ1 12:31945Field goal0–10
LVQ1 8:16958Field goal3–10
CLEQ1 2:483-8Punt3–10
LVQ1 0:5737Punt3–10
CLEQ2 15:003-1Punt3–10
LVQ2 13:24414Field goal6–10
CLEQ2 11:12817Punt6–10
LVQ2 7:341049Punt6–10
CLEQ2 1:46969Touchdown6–17
LVQ2 0:18215Field goal9–17
CLEQ3 15:00628Field goal9–20
LVQ3 11:07525Punt9–20
CLEQ3 9:14972Turnover9–20
LVQ3 4:53426Punt9–20
CLEQ3 2:46518Punt9–20
LVQ4 14:53756Turnover9–20
CLEQ4 11:31613Field goal9–23
LVQ4 8:311388Turnover on downs9–23
CLEQ4 4:2239Punt9–23
LVQ4 4:00446Turnover9–23
CLEQ4 2:4934Punt9–23
LVQ4 1:074-3Turnover on downs9–23
CLEQ4 0:4000End of half9–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson8/1712110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison391483.81
Josh Cribbs4215.30
Derek Anderson1-1-1.00
Chris Jennings2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi34611
Michael Gaines11240
Evan Moore13190
Brian Robiskie22140
Chansi Stuckey1430
Josh Cribbs0100
Chris Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.