2009 · Week 16 · Division
Final / OT
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -14
Total
48.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.118
- 36.1%Success rate48.1%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -5.15CPOE+6.47
- 33.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.06Points / drive2.36
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 21/31 | 271 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/37 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 8 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.33