2009 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.156
- 43.4%Success rate36.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.75CPOE-5.15
- 42.8%Third-down rate33.0%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.06
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/35 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 6 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 16/32 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 19 | 40 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 9 | 15 | 1 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.74