2009 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

20·10

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.156
  • 43.4%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.75CPOE-5.15
  • 42.8%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.06
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
TBQ1 14:563-2Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 13:27413Punt0–3
TBQ1 11:14614Punt0–3
ATLQ1 8:26514Punt0–3
TBQ1 6:0769Punt0–3
ATLQ1 2:4734Punt0–3
TBQ1 1:13723Punt0–3
ATLQ2 13:231058Turnover on downs0–3
TBQ2 8:1537Punt0–3
ATLQ2 7:20848Field goal3–3
TBQ2 4:0931Punt3–3
ATLQ2 3:06942Touchdown10–3
TBQ3 15:0030Punt10–3
ATLQ3 14:02723Turnover10–3
TBQ3 10:5636Punt10–3
ATLQ3 9:511481Missed field goal10–3
TBQ3 2:281170Touchdown10–10
ATLQ4 11:3438Turnover10–10
TBQ4 10:0910Turnover10–10
ATLQ4 10:04544Touchdown17–10
TBQ4 7:18645Turnover17–10
ATLQ4 4:14862Field goal20–10
TBQ4 1:00433End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3522322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood9273.00
Matt Ryan133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White68661
Michael Jenkins47450
Justin Peelle34381
Tony Gonzalez37300
Jerious Norwood44230
Marty Booker0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman16/3217412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams19402.10
Josh Freeman3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow58560
Cadillac Williams47350
Maurice Stovall12270
Michael Clayton11160
Antonio Bryant29151
Jerramy Stevens12140
John Gilmore1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.74