Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.168
- 43.2%Success rate35.2%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.266
- +0.036EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.59CPOE-10.33
- 46.1%Third-down rate32.5%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.23
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 22/39 | 202 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 8 | 10 | 69 | 2 |
| Mike Thomas | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 7/11 | 86 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 33 | 127 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Chris Jennings | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Royal | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Gaines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.26