2009 · Week 17

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

17·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 16°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.168
  • 43.2%Success rate35.2%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.266
  • +0.036EPA / rush-0.069
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.59CPOE-10.33
  • 46.1%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.23
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00844Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:57628Punt0–3
CLEQ1 7:3334Punt0–3
JAXQ1 5:2067Field goal3–3
CLEQ1 2:2036Punt3–3
JAXQ1 0:15721Punt3–3
CLEQ2 10:49620Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 9:1239Punt3–3
CLEQ2 7:13757Touchdown3–10
JAXQ2 3:5110Turnover3–10
CLEQ2 3:35536Field goal3–13
JAXQ2 1:44751End of half3–13
JAXQ3 15:001034Missed field goal3–13
CLEQ3 9:561067Touchdown3–20
JAXQ3 4:0334Punt3–20
CLEQ3 2:5966Punt3–20
JAXQ4 14:18979Touchdown10–20
CLEQ4 10:301360Field goal10–23
JAXQ4 2:171395Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard22/3920221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew16825.10
David Garrard5408.00
Rashad Jennings393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller810692
Mike Thomas710650
Rashad Jennings34310
Mike Sims-Walker27280
Maurice Jones-Drew1260
Zach Potter1130
Ernest Wilford0100
Brock Bolen0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson7/118601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison331273.81
Josh Cribbs6477.81
Chris Jennings9384.20
Derek Anderson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Royal22340
Jerome Harrison22200
Evan Moore22180
Mohamed Massaquoi13140
Michael Gaines0100
Chansi Stuckey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.26