Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.026
- 36.4%Success rate42.0%
- -0.113EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -4.70CPOE-2.00
- 27.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.20Points / drive1.49
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/24 | 207 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 25 | 259 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Javarris Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 5 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javarris Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 32/56 | 431 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 14 | 19 | 213 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 13 | 95 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Daniel Graham | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Richard Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81