2009 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

44·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.123EPA / play-0.026
  • 36.4%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.107
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -4.70CPOE-2.00
  • 27.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.49
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:10486Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:17832Punt7–0
KCQ1 7:5237Punt7–0
DENQ1 6:2834Punt7–0
KCQ1 5:33558Turnover7–0
DENQ1 3:341273Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 14:07727Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:34435Punt7–7
KCQ2 10:061068Field goal10–7
DENQ2 5:031074Field goal10–10
KCQ2 0:2714End of half10–10
KCQ3 15:001160Touchdown17–10
DENQ3 10:35473Touchdown17–17
KCQ3 8:25562Field goal20–17
DENQ3 5:3910Opp touchdown27–17
DENQ3 5:16529Punt27–17
KCQ3 3:06514Turnover27–17
DENQ3 1:0433Touchdown27–24
KCQ3 0:12651Field goal30–24
DENQ4 12:57645Opp touchdown37–24
DENQ4 9:52811Punt37–24
KCQ4 7:59378Touchdown44–24
DENQ4 6:251154Turnover44–24
KCQ4 2:4339Punt44–24
DENQ4 2:07670End of half44–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/2420701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles2525910.42
Javarris Williams3103.30
Matt Cassel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers58800
Terrance Copper22570
Leonard Pope13290
Bobby Wade15160
Dwayne Bowe1160
Jamaal Charles1130
Jake O'Connell1130
Matt Cassel0100
Javarris Williams0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton32/5643113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14503.62
Correll Buckhalter6183.00
Kyle Orton2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney14192130
Brandon Lloyd413950
Knowshon Moreno33480
Brandon Stokley58431
Daniel Graham48290
Correll Buckhalter2430
Richard Quinn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.81